The Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) have experienced warming of around 0.7°C between 1980 and 2017.
Future trends in warming are obscured by the inability of climate models to accurately simulate trends at sufficiently small spatial scales. Warming is likely to take place at a rate slightly lower than the global average. On the highest emissions pathway warming of around 3.0°C is projected by the end of the century.
FSM faces a diverse set of risks from climate change but data and reliable model projections are lacking, presenting challenges for decision makers.
Potential threats to human well-being and natural ecosystems include increased prevalence of natural hazards such as extreme heat, intensified cyclones and extreme rainfall.
In particular, the relative rate of sea-level rise threatens low-lying areas, increasing the risks associated with saline intrusion, tsunami and cyclone-induced storm surge, and wave-driven flooding, and coastal erosion.
Biodiversity and the natural environment of FSM face extreme pressure, and loss of some species of fish, coral, bird, and terrestrial species is likely without very effective conservation measures.
FSM’s population already lives in a volatile environment, to which it has adapted, but climate change is likely to increase its variability, pose new threats, and place stress on livelihoods.
Communities are likely to need support to adapt and manage disaster risks facing their wellbeing, livelihoods, and infrastructure. Geographic isolation and economic vulnerabilities will increase the challenges faced by communities and decision makers.
Research is urgently needed to better understand issues of migration and displacement across FSM’s islands, and to understand the potentially unequal and dual impacts of climate change and development on poorer communities.