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Middle East and Northern Africa Seasonal Monitor - End of Season (September 2020 - May 2021)

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• Uneven rainfall performance and distribution characterized the 2020/21 season, with delayed onset of rainfall season recorded both in Northern African and in Middle East. Abundant rains received later in the season compensated for previously recorded dryness; however, not in all cultivated areas as drought-like conditions can be observed in northern Algeria and Al-Hasakeh in northeast Syria

• Erratic rainfall resulted into well below-average vegetation development, mainly in in eastern Turkey as well as in the centre and south of the country. Vegetation conditions are good in Southern and central Iraq; however poor vegetation development was observed across northwestern Ninewa, and parts of northeastern Dahuk, Erbil, Sulaymaniyah, and Salah Al Din. Dry conditions affected crop and vegetation development in northeast Syria, where severe dryness can be observed in Al-Hasakeh, parts of Raqqa, Aleppo and Deir-ez-Zor

• Production prospects of winter wheat for the region are mixed. Persistent dryness in areas of northern Iraq, western Syria, northeast Morocco as well as extremely dry conditions in northern Algeria are expected to negatively affect production. Conflict and other socio-economic factors are likely to affect crop production in Libya and Syria. Due to favorable weather and climate conditions, wheat production is seen to be between average to above average in Egypt and Tunisia

• Forecasts for the period June to August point to higher-than-average temperatures across the entire region, mainly in Turkey, northern Iraq, Syria and northern Algeria with temperatures forecast double the average of the period. This poses concerns on water requirements for irrigated crops following an extremely dry winter season.