• Tuvalu’s island groups have experienced historical warming of around 0.8°C since 1980.
• Future trends in warming are obscured by the inability of climate models to accurately simulate trends at sufficiently small spatial scales. Warming is likely to take place at a rate slightly lower than the global average.
On the highest emissions pathway warming of around 2.8°C is projected by the end of the century.
• Tuvalu faces a diverse set of risks from climate change but data and reliable model projections are lacking, presenting challenges for decision makers.
• Potential threats to human well-being and natural ecosystems include increased prevalence of heatwave, intensified cyclones, saline intrusion, wave-driven flooding, and permanent inundation.
• Biodiversity and the natural environment of Tuvalu face extreme pressure, and loss of some species of fish, coral, bird, and terrestrial species is likely without very effective conservation measures.
• Tuvalu faces a potential long-term threat from permanent inundation and wave-driven flooding, and some studies have suggested that many of its low-lying islands will become uninhabitable within the 21st century.
• Some migration of communities has already been documented from Tuvalu’s atolls. However, other research has suggested that the risk of large-scale net loss of land may previously have been overstated and that current drivers of migration primarily relate to socioeconomic issues.
• Tuvalu’s population already lives in a dynamic ecosystem, to which it has adapted, but climate change is likely to increase its variability, pose new threats, and place stress on livelihoods.
• Communities are likely to need support to adapt and manage disaster risks facing their wellbeing, livelihoods, and infrastructure. Geographic isolation and economic vulnerabilities, including dependence on remittance and foreign aid, will increase the challenges faced by communities and decision makers.