An IPC analysis update conducted in Tigray and the neighbouring zones of Amhara and Afar concludes that over 350,000 people are in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) between May and June 2021. This is the highest number of people in IPC Phase 5 since the 2011 famine in Somalia.
This severe crisis results from the cascading effects of conflict, including population displacements, movement restrictions, limited humanitarian access, loss of harvest and livelihood assets, and dysfunctional or non-existent markets.
As of May 2021, 5.5 million people (61% of the people in the area) are facing high levels of acute food insecurity: 3.1 million people are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 2.1 million people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). This is despite the major humanitarian food assistance that has reached up to 5 million people in the last few months.
In the areas where data was sufficient to conduct a projection analysis, the situation is expected to worsen through September 2021, with 4.4 million people (74% of the population analysed) in Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or above).
Among these, an estimated 400,000 people are expected to face Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). These estimations take into account an expansion of humanitarian assistance to reach 60% of the population. If the conflict further escalates or, for any other reason, humanitarian assistance is hampered, most areas of Tigray will be at Risk of Famine. (see box on the right).
This IPC analysis serves as an urgent call for the delivery of crucial life-saving assistance for the millions affected. Urgent action is needed to scale up the geographic coverage and quantity of assistance: more people need more assistance, more consistently, in all affected areas.