Escalation of the conflict. In March 2021, the geopolitical context of the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine deteriorated. Scaled up military presence along the eastern and southern border coupled with intensification of military clashes and use of heavy weapons. As a result, the Ukraine Humanitarian Country Team agreed to strengthen the emergency response preparedness and review the Inter-Agency Contingency Plan. Based on the agreed contingency scenarios, the Shelter/NFI Cluster reviewed its HRP activities (also establishing a priority order in case of escalation), its target groups and the budget. The Cluster estimated that in the contingency plan scenario 55,700 more persons will need shelter, NFI and winterization assistance, bringing the HRP sectoral target to 174,700 persons. 6,5 additional million USD will be required to fund the revised Cluster activities and target. The trigger that will activate the scenario is – “more than 15 inhabited houses damaged per day, more than twice a week”. The number corresponds to the “pre-ceasefire” situation and serves as a threshold for triggering the scenario.