Latest data shows that an estimated 7.3 million people in Sudan (16% of the population analyzed) are in high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between April and May (current period) and require urgent action. Of these, around 5.5 million people are classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) while around 1.8 million are critically food insecure classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The most affected localities of Red Sea State (Halaib and Jubayt-el-maaadin) are classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). An increase in localized conflicts triggered population displacement, which, combined with the deterioration of the economy, led to higher than usual levels of acute food insecurity. As a result, the highest prevalence of population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse are observed in North Darfur (25%), followed by West Darfur (22%), North Kordofan (20%), South Kordofan (20%), Gedarif (19%) and Central, East and South Darfur states, ranging from 17-18%.
During the first projection period (June–September 2021), which will coincide with the peak lean season, it is estimated that around 9.7 million people (21% of the population analyzed) will likely be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse. Compared to the same period of the June 2020 IPC analysis, there is a 1 percentage point increase in the prevalence of the population in Emergency and a 1 percentage point reduction in those in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Although the total population in Crisis and Emergency has remained similar (21%), the severity has increased. There is also a noticeable deterioration (5% of the population analyzed) to worse IPC Phase classifications, mainly attributable to the impacts of the lean season, tribal conflicts, diminished labor opportunities causing low purchasing power, high food prices as well as inflation.
Above average rains during the June to September 2020 rainy season, coupled by floods during August and September, resulted in significant damage of infrastructure and households’ assets.
Economic decline and inflation
Sudan’s economy is ailing from the devaluation of the Sudanese pound (SDG), high inflation and soaring food and non-food prices reflected in the high inflation rate recorded during the early months of 2021. This has curtailed household purchasing power.
Conflict induced displacements
Influx of refugees from conflictaffected South Sudan as well as internal displacement distabilized certain localities (Geneina) and states such as the Darfurs and the Kordofans.