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Sudan Food Security Outlook Update, April 2021

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High food prices and poor purchasing power drive high needs through the lean season


• Sudan is expected to face increased emergency humanitarian assistance needs through the peak of the lean season (JuneSeptember 2021) due to extremely high food prices and belowaverage household purchasing power, increases in displaced households in Darfur, the continued influx of Ethiopian refugees from Tigray, and the economic impacts of COVID-19.

The number of households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes is expected to remain high, particularly among recently displaced households, refugees, people affected by a belowaverage harvest last season, and urban poor households.

• The 2020/21 winter season wheat harvest has concluded across most wheat-producing areas. Despite some impact from flooding and a high cost of production, the harvest is estimated to be 10 percent above the five-year average by the government in the irrigated schemes, and Northern and River Nile states. To better compensate farmers following the devaluation of the SDG and to encourage selling products to the Bank, the government has raised the Salam price (preset price for in-kind payments of debts to the Agricultural Bank) from 10,000 SDG/90 kg of wheat to 13,500 SDG/90kg of wheat.

• In March and April, staple food prices have continued to unseasonally increase, attributed primarily to the extremely high production and transportation costs that are almost 10 times greater than costs last year. Additional drivers for the above-average prices include the recent devaluation of the Sudanese Pound, above-average demand for local wheat due to the high cost and shortages of imported wheat and wheat flour, and increased demand in preparation for Ramadan.

Between February and March, staple food prices increased 10-20 percent and remained 200-250 percent higher than respective prices last year and over six times the five-year average.