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CrisisWatch April 2021

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Global Overview

CrisisWatch highlights three conflict risks and one resolution opportunity in May.

  • In Chad, fighting could escalate as rebels pledge to continue their advance toward the capital N’Djamena after President Déby’s death.

  • Recent high-intensity Taliban attacks in Afghanistan could signal the group is gearing up for an offensive beyond 1 May.

  • Somalia’s stalled electoral process is likely to trigger further deadly fighting in its capital Mogadishu.

  • Direct talks between Iranian and Saudi officials could deepen in the coming weeks, presenting a chance to de-escalate regional tensions.

Our monthly conflict tracker warns of deteriorations in 14 countries and conflict areas in April.

  • Violence further intensified across Nigeria, notably in Borno and Zamfara states, leaving hundreds killed and tens of thousands displaced.

  • In Ethiopia, intercommunal clashes escalated in several regions, notably in the Amhara region and in the Afar-Somali disputed area.

  • Tensions between Caracas and Bogotá grew as Venezuela’s military and Colombian guerrilla groups clashed at the border.

  • Maoist militants in India launched their deadliest ambush on security forces in four years.

  • Fighting flared on the** Kyrgz-Tajik **border, killing dozens.

We also note improvements in** Georgia**, where EU- and U.S.-facilitated talks ended the months-long political crisis, and in **Tanzania, **where newly inaugurated President Suluhu signalled her willingness to open up the political space.

Aside from the 70+ conflict situations we regularly follow, we have also tracked notable developments in: Benin,** Bosnia and Herzegovina**,** Brazil**, Indonesia,** Jordan**,** Moldova**,** the Nile Waters**,** Northern Ireland and Saudi Arabia.**