ReliefWeb

In the Horn of Africa, slightly above-normal rains are anticipated in NW Kenya and S Ethiopia for spring breeding in May and June. Above-normal rains are expected in NE Ethiopia and NW Somalia during July, extending over N Somalia in August for summer breeding. In Yemen, above-normal rains are expected in the summer breeding areas of the interior from July to September. In Southwest Asia, above-normal rains are anticipated in coastal areas from Hormozgan, Iran to Baluchistan, Pakistan in May, extending to the interior in June for spring breeding. An early onset of the monsoon is likely in June in the Indo–Pakistan summer breeding areas followed by generally above-normal rains. Tropical cyclone risk in the N Arabian Sea is much higher than normal. In the Sahel of W Africa and Sudan, slightly above-normal rains are anticipated in parts of the summer breeding areas during August and September.

Spring breeding areas (May–June)

• Horn of Africa: slightly wetter than normal in NW Kenya (Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu) and S Ethiopia (SNNP, S Oromia); drier than normal elsewhere

• SW Asia: wetter than normal in coastal areas in May (SE Iran, SW Pakistan), spreading to interior in June • Central Region: drier than normal in the interior of the Arabian Peninsula

• Western Region: drier than normal S of Atlas Mountains Summer breeding areas (June–October)

• Horn of Africa: drier than normal June (Afar, Ethiopia); wetter than normal July–August (Afar; NW Somalia), August (N Somalia); normal September; drier than normal October

• W Africa / Sudan: slightly wetter than normal (August–September)

• Yemen interior: wetter than normal (July–September)

• Indo–Pakistan: wetter than normal early (June) followed by slightly wetter than normal