Low winter rainfall and high temperatures associated with a La Niña weather event are anticipated to drive drought-like conditions over spring, affecting rain-fed and irrigated agriculture/livestock, as well as availability of water for drinking, washing and sanitation. It is anticipated that 25 provinces, already with high levels of food insecurity and malnutrition, are likely to be most acutely affected. Simultaneously, spring is expected to see a volatile and unpredictable pattern of conflict with an anticipated escalation in fighting, in line with seasonal patterns of conflict each year. While flood risk will likely be reduced compared to normal years, flash flooding due to sporadic spring storms remains a risk.
The ICCT has, therefore, developed a Spring Disaster Contingency Plan based on the best available data, historical patterns and previous lessons learned to enable early funding and mitigate displacement, suffering and adoption of negative coping mechanisms associated with poverty such as child marriage, child labour and debt accumulation. Humanitarian partners anticipate some 13.2 million people to be in humanitarian need during the spring period across these 25 provinces, and have prioritised 7.4 million of those people to be reached with assistance, if funding is available.
All planning figures, activities and financial requirements outlined in this Contingency Plan are a sub-set of the 2021 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP). Funding towards requirements identified in this plan should be channeled through HRP partners.