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Still Not There | Global Violent Deaths Scenarios, 2019–30, Briefing Paper, February 2021

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Small Arms Survey
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This Briefing Paper provides an updated trend analysis of global violent deaths based on 2018 data, on the basis of which it develops global-level scenarios for the years leading to 2030. The paper includes a separate analysis of trends in Northern Africa and the five nations of the G5 Sahel region.

The year 2018 was characterized by a decrease in lethal violence in several of the world’s hotspots, primarily due to a significant de-escalation of the armed conflicts in Iraq, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Syria. While nominally 2018 saw more homicides than 2017, population growth outpaced this increase, thus the homicide rate has also decreased marginally. These two trends jointly resulted in a favourable modest change in the rate of violent deaths globally in 2018 compared to 2017.

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