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ASEAN Weekly Disaster Update Week 5, 1 – 7 Feb 2021

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REGIONAL SUMMARY:

A total of 29 disasters (25 floods, 1 landslide, 3 winds) affected the region in week 5. These disasters occurred in Indonesia. High-intensity rain caused the floods in eight provinces of Indonesia. One landside and three whirlwinds occurred in three different provinces of Indonesia. As forecasted by the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) wetter conditions were observed mostly in Java and parts around the islands particularly Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia and caused flooding, landslide, and wind hazards as reported by the Badan Nasional Penanggulan Bencana (BNPB).

HIGHLIGHT:

On 2 Feb 2021, heavy rainfall event caused the flood in Kudus Regency, Central Java, affecting 10.6K persons, and damaging 3K houses. At the same day, flooding incident in Bima, West Nusa Tenggara, has affected more than 500 people and caused 1 death. A total of 11.6K people affected, 1 dead, and 1 missing due to flooding incident in Pasuruan Regency, East Java, on 3 Feb 2021. Meanwhile in Bekasi Regency, West Java, the heavy rainfall event and the overflowing of Ciherang and Kampung River that occurred on 4 Feb 21 resulted in flooding. These events affected 28.1K people and damaged 1.3K houses.

HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL

For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed high 7-day average rainfall over the southern part of the Philippines, western and southern part of Kalimantan, Java Island, Nusa Tenggara Islands, Aru Islands and Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. As of reporting, no tropical cyclone advisory has been issued by the JTWC.

GEOPHYSICAL:

Nine (9) significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were recorded in the region by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) and The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). One of the significant earthquake is the M6.1 that occurred 005 km S 85° W of Magsaysay (Davao Del Sur), Philippines. According to NDRRMC and PHIVOLCS advisories, aftershocks and damages are expected from the M6.1 earthquake. Mount Ili Lewotolo, Sinabung, Merapi, and Karangetang in Indonesia are on Alert Level III. Volcanic activity was reported for Mount Sinabung, Raung, Ibu, Dukono and Semeru in Indonesia, as reported by PVMBG.

OUTLOOK:

For the coming week, the ASMC forecasts wetter conditions over the Philippines, northern Borneo, north-eastern Mainland Southeast Asia and southern Indonesia; warmer conditions expected over the Maritime Continent; cooler conditions are predicted over the central part of the Maritime Continent and southern Thailand. There is a small increase in chance for a very heavy rainfall event to occur in the Northern Philippines, Java Island and Maluku Islands; small increase in chance for extended dry conditions in Eastern coast of Malay Peninsula and western Borneo; very likely extreme hot conditions in equatorial region and the Philippines; and small increase in chance for extreme cold conditions in Central Myanmar.