FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
• Cereal output in 2020 estimated at near-average level
• Prices of wheat flour increased in November 2020, reaching year on year higher levels
Cereal output in 2020 estimated at near-average level
Harvesting of the 2020 winter cereals was completed in August last year, while harvesting of spring crops finalized in October.
According to the preliminary results of an Assessment Mission carried out by FAO, the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) and the Agency on Statistics (AoS) under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, the 2020 aggregate cereal output is estimated at a near-average level of about 1.3 million tonnes. Production of wheat is set at a near-average level of 846 000 tonnes, while the output of barley is estimated at 150 000 tonnes, about 10 percent above the average level and production of maize is set at 182 000 tonnes, 10 percent below average.
Planting of the 2021 winter cereal crops (mainly wheat) took place between September and mid-November 2020 and crops will be harvested from June. Weather conditions were overall favourable during planting, except in some areas, due to excessive rain and early snowfalls.
Prices of wheat flour increased in November 2020, reaching year on year higher levels
Retail prices of first grade wheat flour, after remaining relatively stable between June and October 2020, increased in November, with seasonal trends exacerbated by the depreciation of the national currency. Although prices declined in December, they remained well above the levels of a year before, with the latest upward movements compounding the steep increases recorded between March and May 2020 due to an upsurge in consumer demand amid concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic, market disruptions and export restrictions in Kazakhstan, the country’s key supplier. A year on year weaker national currency, which lost 17 percent of its value against the US dollar during 2020, also supported the strong yearly increase in prices.
Prices of potatoes, another important food staple, increased from November 2019 to April 2020. Prices increased particularly in March and April 2020 due to the strong demand by local consumers, fearing supply shortages due to the pandemic. Prices showed an overall decreasing trend between April and September and increased in the following two months, reaching, in December 2020, levels above those a year before.