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GIEWS Country Brief: Cuba 25-January-2021

Countries
Cuba
Sources
FAO
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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  • Cereal production forecast at well below‑average level in 2020

  • Planting operations of first 2021 paddy crop ongoing

  • Cereal import requirements forecast at low levels in 2020/21 marketing year

Cereal production estimated at well below‑average level in 2020

Harvesting of the 2020 second maize and paddy crops concluded in December and production is estimated a below‑average level due to low plantings and excessive rainfall amounts in early November that affected ripening crops. Production of the aggregate 2020 maize and paddy crops, including the below‑average output of the main season crops harvested earlier in the year, is anticipated at a record low level. This mainly reflects a reduced area sown, which has been generally at a well below‑average level since 2017 due to the low availabilities of agricultural inputs and fuel, following the tightening of the international sanctions and economic hardship.

Planting operations of first 2021 paddy crop ongoing

Planting of the 2021 main season paddy crop started in mid‑November with some delay due to saturated soil moisture and will continue until end‑February. Due to the unfavourable weather conditions at the start of the planting time, planted area is forecast to remain at a below‑average level. Availability of fuel is reported to have improved compared to the previous year. Weather forecasts indicate a high probability of below‑average precipitations in the February‑April period, which coincides with the flowering and grain‑filling stages, raising concerns on yield potential.

Cereal import requirements forecast at low levels in 2020/21 marketing year

Despite the low production gathered in 2020, cereal import requirements in the 2020/21 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at a low level of 1.95 million tonnes. The country’s capacity to import has been further curtailed by the imposition of more strict international sanctions. Imports of maize, which account for the largest share of the imports, are forecast at 750 000 tonnes, more than 10 percent below the five‑year average.