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Mercy Corps Market Analysis Unit: Snapshot of Farmers’ Perspectives: Paddy and Winter Crops (December 2-6, 2020)

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Mercy Corps
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Local agricultural production is critical to livelihoods and food security in Rakhine State. To better understand production challenges, Mercy Corps’ Market Analysis Unit (MAU) interviewed farmers about the 2020 paddy and winter crop seasons. Data collection included phone interviews during December 2-6 as well as key informant interviews (KIIs) the following week. The study used a convenience sample of 173 farmers (76% paddy farmers and 96% winter crop farmers) from six townships, including Kyauk Taw, Minbya, Mrauk U, Pauktaw, Ponnagyun and Sittwe. The data represent a third-round panel of the same respondents interviewed in October and November.

Key Highlights

  • Far fewer farmers reported challenges from COVID or conflict in early-December relative to November, with conflict impacting just 32% of respondents (down from 50%).

  • Optimism rose as just 19% of respondents expected conflict to worsen in December, down from 51% in November.

  • Labor wages and availability remained challenging for roughly 60% of farmers, although the portion facing challenges related to sales and other factors fell in December.

  • One-third of farmers sold paddy by early-December (median of 5000 MMK/basket), although improved mobility boosted supply and reduced prices for some farmers.

  • One-third of farmers sold winter crops by early-December (often at town markets), although a small portion shifted toward selling in village markets at lower prices.

  • If demand is weak farmer income may be hurt by low paddy prices, particularly if supply grows and household purchasing power is diminished by the strains of COVID.

  • Extended reprieve from conflict could boost winter crop supply in town markets if farmers and traders can move freely and prices are more favorable in towns than in villages.