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Libya Humanitarian Needs Overview 2021 (December 2020)

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The Libya 2020 Humanitarian Needs Overview (HNO) analysis covers all 22 mantikas (province), given that the protracted crisis has affected all areas of the country, albeit in different ways and at different times. This has been further exacerbated by the impact of COVID-19 that has touched all parts of the country through the near collapse of the health system and far-reaching effects on the socioeconomic situation and people’s livelihoods.

Internally displaced people (IDPs), returnees, migrants, refugees and non-displaced continue to be the spectrum of population groups, treated by the analysis. Baseline figures on displaced people, returnees and migrants were provided by IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM), while non-displaced was derived from forecasted population figures and refugee population figures was based on the registered refugee list from UNHCR.

For non-displaced Libyans, focus was given to hosting populations and those living in current or previous frontline or conflict-affected areas, particularly in areas hosting large numbers of displaced populations, where there is a higher likelihood of increased damaged as a result of conflict and therefore pressure on available housing and public services. For returnees, focus was given to those areas of conflict and/or armed groups and the threat or presence of explosive hazards.

Geographically, data collection in most instances was undertaken at mantika level through household-level and key informant data collection. Given this, most of the analysis was undertaken at the mantika level. Where there was a need to undertake analysis at the baladiya (district) level, this was done by disaggregating findings from the mantika level data to populate the baladiya level analysis.

The two main sources used for the HNO analysis were the results of the 2020 MSNA and the DTM’s displacement, returnee and migrant reports. The MSNA adopted two parallel data collection exercises, differentiated by population groups of interest. The first focused on Libyans (displaced, returnees and non-displaced) conducted in all of Libya’s 22 mantikas in 2020. A separate methodology was used for migrants and refugees to reflect and analyze migrants and refugees’ inherently different experiences and needs. As the location of migrants and refugees are not dispersed evenly throughout the country but clustered typically in urban areas, nine mantikas were selected in line with pre-defined criteria in relation to concentrations of migrants and refugee populations.

DTM’s population flow monitoring and mobility tracking, conducted every two months, collected and analysed key indicators on displaced households, returnees and migrants. Data is gathered through key informants, at municipality and community level, through key informant interviews in roughly 100 municipalities across all 22 mantikas for displaced people and returnees, and through quantitative interviews at 40 flow monitoring points in 13 municipalities for migrants. Additional reports, covering either locations seeing a significant deterioration or increase in humanitarian needs or for a particular population group (such as maritime migration) provide additional datasets for analysis.

Mostly due to the limitations caused by COVID-19 and associated restrictions, there were limited data sources to support analysis and inform the calculation of people in need (PiN). In Libya, a lack of in-depth sectoral assessments undertaken, with many sectors using results from the MSNA and DTM to inform their sectoral analysis. The impacts on food security were supported by WFP’s mobile Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (mVAM) and other ad-hoc food security agricultural assessments, though most usually only covered a proportion of the geographic scope and/or population groups. For other sectors, disease surveillance, regular market monitoring, as well as service mapping and response monitoring contributed to the calculation of the PiN or analysis.

This was complimented by other ad-hoc and small-scale assessments that provided analysis across a range of cross cutting themes, such as gender, mobility/access and protection, many of which focused on the impact of COVID-19 across Libya. While generally limited in scope (geographic, population groups, etc.) these supported triangulation/validation of other assessment results and contributed to a more inter-sectoral analysis of vulnerabilities and needs.

The majority of assessments that were conducted in 2020 faced a number of constraints, particularly due to COVID-19, that affected the results and were not statistically representative. Most assessments were conducted using remote methodologies, such as through phone interviews, online surveys, WhatsApp group discussions, etc. that influenced the ways in which respondents were identified and, in some cases, required a reduction in the scope of the assessment to adapt to the different information collection platforms. Changes in methodology to adapt to the COVID-19 prevention measures, in some cases, limited the extent to which longitudinal analysis could be made. These challenges are discussed more in the methodology annexes.

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