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ASEAN Weekly Disaster Update Week 48, 23 - 29 Nov 2020

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AHA Centre
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Several localised flooding events, a landslide, and a volcano eruption were reported by the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) in different parts of Indonesia. Flooding was also reported in Terangganu in Malaysia where some citizens have taken shelter in evacuation centres as reported by The National Disaster Management Agency (NADMA). Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) also reported flooding and storms in six provinces. Lastly, the Philippines’ Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) reported that a tail-end of a frontal system affected Region II.


According to Indonesia’s Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG), Mt. Ili Lewotolok erupted on 29 November 2020 with the eruption column observed to be about 4 km above the peak (5.4 km above sea level).
The ash column was observed to be gray with thick intensity towards the east and west. The eruption was recorded on a seismograph with a maximum amplitude of 35 mm and a duration of 600 seconds. The eruption displaced about 4.5K people in the nearby areas. Urgent needs identified by the local authorities are face masks and shelter for those displaced. The Alert Level for Mt. Ili Lewotolok was raised to Level III (Siaga).


For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed specks of high 7-day average rainfall particularly in Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and other parts of Indonesia and northern Philippines. As of reporting, the JTWC has issued tropical cyclone advisories for INVEST 98S and 95S in the Indian Ocean but both are moving away from the region (westward).


Three (3) significant earthquakes (M≥5.0) were recorded in the region by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG). Mount Sinabung and Ili Lewotolo (both of which reported recent volcanic activity), Merapi, and Karangetang in Indonesia, all on Alert Level III, are under close monitoring. Lastly, Ibu, Dukono, and Semeru all in Indonesia remain on Alert Level II despite recent volcanic activity per PVMBG.


For the coming week, the ASMC forecasts wetter conditions for northern parts of the region, central and southern Viet Nam, southern Thailand, and northern Philippines and the southeastern maritime continent; drier conditions for parts of the equatorial region; cooler in easter mainland Southeast Asia; and warmer in Central Sumatra and Borneo. Based on the regional assessment of extremes there are moderate increases in chance for a heavy rainfall event (northern Philippines, central Viet Nam, southern Thailand, southern Indonesia, Papua Island), extended dry conditions (equatorial region), and extreme hot conditions (central Myanmar and equatorial region) in the region.