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West Africa Seasonal Monitor Floods situation update 2020 Season (01-10 October 2020)

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• Short - range forecasts up to 31 th October, marking the end of the season shows continued favorable seasonal conditions in most of the region except some localized pockets of moderate dryness. It is thus likely that the rainy season will be abnormally late particularly in the Sahel region.

• Early October, the end of the rainy season in the Sahel, West Africa has been characterized by mostly adequate and well-distributed rains: this results in average to above-average seasonal rainfall The Sahel region benefited the most from very good conditions with well above-average seasonal rains, while belowaverage rainfall spread over the southernmost part of the region across the Gulf of Guinea. The cumulative heavy rainfall recorded from mid-August to September resulted in flooding, that have affected about 760,000 people in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal with at least 111 fatalities.

• As a result of increase in rainfall since late July and wetter conditions in August and September: a pattern of strongly above-average vegetation emerged during September and October in all of the Sahel. Agricultural areas benefitted from very good seasonal conditions. Good production prospects are certain this year in the region (in biomass and crops production). As a result of good seasonal performance in mid-October water resources remain at a good level. Overall they have reached their highest level throughout the West African region.

• Across the Sahel, harvest has started for main season millet and sorghum crops in southern Mali, Burkina Faso, southern Niger, and eastern Senegal. Meanwhile favourable harvesting of main season crops reached completion in Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, Benin, and central Cameroon, while crops are still developing in Guinea, northern Cameroon, Guinea-Bissau, Togo, and northern Nigeria under generally favourable conditions. Despite localized floods impacting the Sahel and drier-than-average conditions along the Gulf of Guinea countries, overall conditions are favourable except in conflict-affected northern Burkina Faso, the Central African Republic, and northeast Nigeria along with the conflict and floodaffected Far North region of Cameroon.