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East Africa Seasonal Monitor - October 10, 2020

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• The June to September 2020 seasonal rains over the northern and western sector of the region were above average across much of the region. Devastating floods occurred at the peak of the rainfall season, affecting over 2.5 million people and causing significant crop damage in riverine areas in Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen, Ethiopia,
Somalia, Uganda, and Kenya.

• Crop losses were significant in several riverine areas, including along the Awash River in Ethiopia, the While and Blue Nile Rivers in South Sudan and Sudan, and the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia.
Outside of flood-affected areas, the seasonal rains were generally beneficial for crop and livestock production, water availability, and hydro-power generation across East Africa. The water-levels in major lakes, rivers, and dams are among the highest on record, especially in the Lake Victoria basin, major Rift Valley lakes, and White and Blue Nile Rivers.

• Desert locust swarms continue to form, and breeding is underway in Ethiopia, north-central Somalia, Yemen, and eastern Sudan. The situation in Ethiopia is of high concern, where government and other sources report significant damage to meher crops in Amhara, Tigray, and Oromia regions.

• Rangeland resources and livestock production conditions are exceptionally above average across most pastoral and agropastoral regions of East Africa due to two consecutive rainfall seasons of above average rainfall performance since late 2019. However, atypically high disease prevalence and livestock deaths are reported in South Sudan due to severe floods in 2019 and 2020.

• The 1-2 weeks rainfall outlook depicts the gradual southward shift of the tropical rainfall system from the northern to equatorial sectors. This marks a timely onset of the seasonal rains in bimodal South Sudan and Uganda, while the rains will gradually subside and reduce the risk of associated flooding in Sudan, unimodal South Sudan, Yemen, and Ethiopia. However, much of eastern Horn is expected to remain sunny and dry, with a delayed and erratic onset of the short/deyr rains in eastern Ethiopia and southern Somalia.