ReliefWeb

Highlights

• Overall, late September (end of the rainy season in many areas across the Sahel), the rainy season across West Africa has been generally characterized by mostly adequate and well distributed rains, resulting widespread average to above average seasonal rainfall. These beneficial outcomes for the Sahel particularly were however countered by much drier than average conditions along the Gulf of Guinea coast ,from Liberia to southern Nigeria with Sierra Leone also affected. Over the next 3-5 days (2-6 October), moderate to heavy rainfall is expected in coastal countries (Guinea, Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana). This will potentially lead to flooding in lowlying areas and damages crop in some localized areas which are currently approaching their harvest time.

• A pattern of strongly above average vegetation emerged during September: this is particularly noticeable in the whole Sahel. It mostly results from increase and improvement in rainfall since late July, and wetter conditions in August and September. Agricultural areas benefitted from very good seasonal conditions. Good production prospects are certain this year in the region (in biomass and crops production). As result of good seasonal performance, water resources have been maintained at good level throughout the West African region. Overall they have reached their highest level.

• According to PRESASS seasonal forecasts update in July, above average rainfall is expected in Sahelian countries for the period July-August-September while rainfall amounts will be concentrated in the mid - season between mid-July and August. It emerges, the dry spells should be longer to normal over most SudanSahelian belt in the second half of the season, including the heading, flowering and the crops ripening phases with high probabilities of late to normal end of season in agricultural areas of Sahelian countries except far northern Senegal, western Mali and the agricultural areas of Mauritania.

• However, ECMWF forecasts (for September–November 2020) indicate average to mostly near average condition in Sahel except Central Mali, Northern and SE Senegal, half western Mauritania and Burkina Faso. In the rest of the region, across the southern regions conditions will likely be below average to mostly near average except most of CAR, Southern Ghana and half northern Nigeria where average condition rainfall is expected. The two sets of forecasts are not currently consistent, with ECMWF being more pessimistic.