The COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly spreading across the globe with high mortality, severely straining health systems and causing significant social disruptions and economic damage. Like many other developing countries with suboptimal health systems and capacity, Nepal may also suffer significantly due to the impact of COVID-19. Mathematical modelling using epidemiological data can help policymakers to better understand the impact of the various mitigation strategies on transmission of the virus and mechanisms for ‘flattening of the curve’, as well as which intervention would be most effective. DFID commissioned OPM and the University of Oxford to carry out a rapid modelling of the possible spread of COVID- 19 in Nepal.
Professor Lisa White, Dr Nicholas Letchford, Dr Sunil Pokharel, Dr Dipti Lata, Dr Rashid Zaman (May 2020) Modelling of COVID-19 Strategies in Nepal. Oxford Policy Management, Oxford Policy & Analysis for Health of the Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford.