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East Africa Seasonal Monitor - August 10, 2020

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Heavy June to September rains bring floods but generally support favorable cropping conditions

Key Messages
  • The June to September seasonal rains are currently well established in the northern and western sectors with generally average to above-average cumulative performance since June. However, slight to moderate rainfall deficits persist in eastern Sudan and northern South Sudan.

  • In July and early August, heavy rainfall resulted in severe flooding that displaced communities in eastern South Sudan, southern Somalia, Ethiopia, western Yemen, and parts of Sudan.

  • Cropping and rangeland conditions generally remain favorable across much of East Africa, apart from localized flood-affected areas. However, rangeland in parts of the eastern Horn is presently on a declining trend after the early cessation of the March to May 2020 rains and prevailing hotter-than-normal conditions.

  • The short-term rainfall forecast through August 20, 2020 shows an increased likelihood that the seasonal rains will intensify in the western and northern sectors. August is typically the seasonal peak. As a result, there is an elevated risk of flooding in Yemen, Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, western Kenya, and Uganda.