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CrisisWatch July 2020

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Global Overview

The latest edition of Crisis Group’s monthly conflict tracker highlights deteriorations in July in 11 countries and conflict situations, the overwhelming majority of them in Africa.

In Ethiopia, the killing of popular Oromo singer Hachalu Hundessa sparked a wave of protests, which left over 200 dead. In Sudan, the government struggled to advance the transitional agenda amid continuing delays in finalising a peace accord with rebel groups and escalating deadly violence in Darfur. In South Sudan, intercommunal violence surged in the east, while the partnership between President Salva Kiir and VP Riek Machar suffered setbacks. In Mali, clashes between anti-government protesters and security forces in the capital Bamako killed at least 14 people.

Looking ahead to August, CrisisWatch warns of three conflict risks. In Libya, Egypt took preparatory steps toward a direct military intervention, which could escalate the war dramatically, while heavy clashes in Yemen’s north between the government and the Huthis could intensify. In Nagorno-Karabakh, deadly border clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan in July – the severest escalation since 2016 – could spark another flare-up absent strong communication between Yerevan and Baku.

We also flag a resolution opportunity in the coming month in Afghanistan. After the Taliban announced a three-day ceasefire and the government made progress toward releasing the final batch of prisoners, prospects rose again of long-awaited intra-Afghan talks starting in August.