There is no significant change in the previously issued monsoon outlook. Global SST forecast shows that El Nino Southern Oscillations (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are likely to remain neutral during coming monsoon season. Based on global and regional circulation models, the outlook for the season is as under:
“Monsoon rainfall is expected to remain near normal (+10%) during July to September 2020 in Pakistan. Sindh and Kashmir are likely to receive moderately above normal (+20%) rainfall during August and September.” Area weighted normal rainfall of Pakistan during Jul - Sep is 140.8 mm.
Riverine flood potential in main rivers of the country.
High probability of urban flooding in metropolis cities.
High probability of flash flooding in hill torrents of Punjab.
Good impact on rice crop and negative impact on cotton crop.
Conducive environment for Locust breeding in deserts during monsoon season.
Sufficient water availability for irrigation and power sectors.