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Madagascar Food Security Outlook, June 2020 to January 2021

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Below normal staple production leads to a severe early lean season in Southern Madagascar


• The Government of Madagascar has lifted many of the measures previously enacted to slow the spread of COVID-19, allowing economic activities to resume to some degree. The movement of people is not restricted, except to and from Analamanga and Antsinanana regions.

• Income sources among poor households are below average in several areas. For example, remittances in southern Madagascar remain lower than normal as laborers cannot migrate as usual to western and northern Madagascar, as these areas are only accessible by national roads that pass through locked-down cities.

• On average, prices remained steady or decreased minimally from April to May in the south despite the onset of the harvest period due to expected below-average production. Staple food prices in urban markets also decreased, by 10 percent, but remain above average.

• Most areas of the country are in Minimal (IPC Phase 1), including in the three major cities, where ongoing humanitarian food assistance is sustaining Minimal! (IPC Phase 1!) outcomes. In southern areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes exist and are anticipated to persist through October, after which food security will moderately deteriorate with the onset of the lean season.