Crisis (IPC Phase 3) likely to persist in Mozambique through early 2021
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in the semiarid areas of southern Mozambique following crop failure and/or significantly below-average main season production. As the conflict intensifies in Cabo Delgado, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes also persist in this area, as an increasing number of people are displaced and lose access to their typical food and income sources. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are mostly present in areas where poor households are still recovering from previous shocks (cyclones, floods, and drought). In all other areas of the country, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected due to favorable food availability and access. Beginning in October 2020, food security is likely to deteriorate across southern Tete and other southern and central areas as poor households will have exhausted their below-average food stocks much earlier than usual and be employing unsustainable coping strategies driving Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.
As of June 29, Mozambique has 883 confirmed cases of COVID-19. Measures to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 have resulted in thousands of poor households in urban and peri-urban areas losing sources of income. A recent IPC analysis carried out by the Technical Secretariat for Food Security and Nutrition (SETSAN) and partners estimated that approximately 15 percent of the population of Maputo and Matola are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.
In May, the price of maize grain in central and northern markets decreased or remained stable. In the south, the price of maize grain has started to decrease due to increased supply of maize grain from the central region. However, the price of maize grain in these areas remains 20-60 percent above the five-year average. The price of maize meal and rice remained stable in May, except in Maputo, where the price of rice rose by 40 percent likely due to some temporary supply constraints.