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Forecast based early action triggered in Bangladesh for Floods EAP2019BD02

Bangladesh Red Crescent
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3,300 people to be assisted 234,803 budget in CHF

General overview

The Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS) has activated its Early Action Protocol for floods. The EAP pre-activation was triggered when the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) issued a flood forecast of 50 per cent or more probability of a once in a ten-year flood projection and thereafter remaining above that threshold for three days. The GLOFAS forecast on 24 June 2020 suggests that on 2 July 2020, the water level at the Bahadurabaad station will cross a once in ten-year return period (115 000 m3 /s) and remain consistent for three days. This corresponds to an impact forecast that 3.7 million population or and about 1 million households will be affected. This forecasted flood depth was then combined with a vulnerability map, to estimate the percentage of houses that could be at risk of getting impacted in each union. All unions with more than 25 per cent of houses at risk were placed on a ‘priority’ list and the top-ranking unions were selected for early actions. As shown in the table below, the EAP will be implemented in nine unions of Kurigram, Gaibandha and Jamalpur districts

BDRCS will target 3,300 households in nine unions in three districts (3 union in each district) which have more than 25 percent of household asset damage.

BDRCS will provide: (i) Support for boat evacuation of people, livestock, moveable assets, (ii)
Multi-purpose cash grant (MPCG) of BDT 4,500 (CHF 50) and (iii) basic first aid service for injuries and sickness.
This is the pre-activation trigger to kick start beneficiary selection for cash transfers. The decision on whether or not to go for cash transfer will be made through the activation trigger, which is based on the deterministic forecast from Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC).