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Executive Summary

The Annual Tropical Cyclone Report (ATCR) is prepared by the staff of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), a jointly manned United States Air Force/Navy organization under the operational command of the Commanding Officer, Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

The original JTWC was established on 1 May 1959 when the Joint Chiefs of Staff directed Commander-in-Chief, US Pacific Command (USCINCPAC) to provide a single tropical cyclone warning center for the western North Pacific region. USCINCPAC delegated the tropical cyclone forecast and warning mission to Commander, Pacific Fleet. A subsequent USCINCPAC directive further tasked Commander, Pacific Air Force to provide for tropical cyclone (TC) reconnaissance support to the JTWC. Currently, JTWC operations are guided by USPACOM Instruction 0539.1 and Pacific Air Forces Instruction 15-101.

This edition of the ATCR documents the 2014 TC season and details operationally or meteorologically significant cyclones noted within the JTWC Area of Responsibility. Details are provided to describe significant challenges and/or shortfalls in the TC warning system and to serve as a focal point for future research and development efforts. Also included are tropical cyclone reconnaissance statistics and a summary of tropical cyclone research or tactics, techniques and procedures development that members of JTWC were involved in.

The western North Pacific Ocean returned to below average activity again, with only 23 TCs observed compared to the long term average of 31. However, 7 of the 23 cyclones attained super typhoon intensity. Despite the low number of cyclones, the onset of El Nino conditions shifted the genesis region eastward, causing major DoD installations to experience strong cyclone impacts. Okinawa had two direct strikes and two additional passages within 300 miles.
Guam had three cyclones pass within 300 miles. Department of Defense bases in South Korea were impacted by one cyclone and mainland Japan was impacted by four.

The Southern Hemisphere activity remained below the long term average of 28, with 14 cyclones in the southern Indian Ocean / western Australia region and 10 in the South Pacific / eastern Australia region. The northern Indian Ocean experienced normal activity of five cyclones, with two in the Arabian Sea and three in the Bay of Bengal. The most significant cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean were Tropical Cyclone 03B (Hudhud) in the Bay of Bengal and 04A (Nilofar) in the Arabian Sea, both reached peak intensities of 115 knots.

Weather satellite data remained the mainstay of the TC reconnaissance mission to support the JTWC. Air Force satellite analysts exploited a wide variety of conventional and microwave satellite data to produce over eleven thousand position and intensity estimates (fixes), primarily using the USAF Mark IVB and the USN FMQ-17 satellite direct readout systems. Geo-located microwave satellite imagery overlays available via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system from Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center and the Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, CA were also used by JTWC to make TC fixes.

JTWC also continues to utilize radar derived TC position information from numerous U.S. owned/operated weather radars as well as from international sources. However, budget challenges have delayed the replacement of the WSR-88D Doppler Weather Radar at Kadena AB.

JTWC continued to collaborate with TC forecast support and research organizations such as the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey (NRLMRY), Naval Post Graduate School, the Office of Naval Research, Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), and NOAA Line Offices for continued development of TC reconnaissance tools, numerical models and forecast aids.

The Technical Services Team (formally TECHDEV) continued significant collaboration with the research and development community. Among a variety of promising projects (described in Chapter 5 of this report), Technical Services implemented the Weighted Analog Intensity (WANI) application developed at the Naval Postgraduate School. This intensity aid uses the JTWC track forecast to match the top ten analogs from the JTWC best track archive. A weighted consensus intensity forecast and intensity spread guidance are created from these ten historical cyclones.

Behind these efforts are the dedicated team of men and women, military and civilian at JTWC. Special thanks to the entire JTWC N6 Department for their continued outstanding IT support and the administrative and budget staff who worked tirelessly to ensure JTWC had the necessary resources to accomplish the mission despite extremely volatile financial times.

A Special thanks also to: FNMOC for their operational data and modeling support; the NRLMRY and ONR for its dedicated TC research; the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service for satellite reconnaissance support; Dr. John Knaff, Mr. Jeff Hawkins, Dr. Mark DeMaria, and Mr. Chris Velden for their continuing efforts to exploit remote sensing technologies in new and innovative ways; Mr. Charles R. “Buck” Sampson, Ms. Ann Schrader, and Mr. Mike Frost for their outstanding support and continued development of the ATCF system.