Current and forecast rainfall indicative of early to timely onset of rainfall seasons in February and March
- Since mid-February, Tanzania and equatorial East Africa have received above-average rainfall. The dry season between the October-December 2019 rains and onset of the main season and first season rains in Tanzania, western Kenya, and Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi was atypically short.
- The Horn of Africa has remained seasonally dry and hot since January. However, rangeland conditions are above normal following the exceptional October-December 2019 rains. According to the latest rainfall forecasts, there is an increased likelihood of an early to timely onset of the Belg rains in Ethiopia and the long rains/*Gu* rains in the Horn.
- Given persistent above-average rainfall in equatorial East Africa, the rainfall forecast poses an elevated risk of flooding in lowland and hilly areas. In addition, the expected resurgence of second-generation desert locusts through June pose a hazard to crop and livestock production.