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GIEWS Country Brief: Zimbabwe 23 March 2020

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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  • Unfavourable production prospects for 2020 cereal crops
  • Large volumes of cereal imports needed in 2019/20 marketing year (April/March)
  • Cereal prices as of January 2020 up to ten times higher than year-earlier levels
  • Number of food insecure people estimated 5.5 million in October-December 2020 period

Unfavourable production prospects for 2020 cereal crops

Harvesting of the 2020 cereal crops, mainly maize, is expected to commence in May and production prospects are generally unfavourable.

A poor economic environment, including high inflation rates and sustained currency weakness, hindered access to agricultural inputs and increased production costs. In addition, seasonal rainfall was below average during the planting period in November and December 2019 in the main producing provinces, hampering planting operations. The combination of these factors resulted in a contraction in the sown area of the 2020 maize crop, the main cereal grown in the country. Conversely, for sorghum and millet, indications point to an increase in sowings, as farmers, with support from national institutions, opted to increase production of the more drought-tolerant cereal crops.

Precipitation improved in January and February 2020, reducing seasonal rainfall deficits in some areas, but soil moisture levels still remained inadequate in most provinces. In the northeastern Mashonaland provinces, which produce about 50 percent of the national maize output, seasonal rainfall amounts until February 2020 were approximately 25 percent below the average, causing stressed crop conditions in parts. In minor producing southern parts of the country, rainfall deficits were even larger, resulting in permanent wilting of cereal crops in localized areas.

For the March-May 2020 period, weather forecasts indicate a higher probability of below-average rainfall in the main cereal producing provinces in the centre and north, and average rainfall across the minor-producing south. Based on current conditions and the unfavourable weather outlook, production of cereals in 2020 is forecast at a below-average level, reflecting low plantings and expected below-average yields.

Large volumes of cereal imports required in 2019/20 marketing year to cover 2019 reduced cereal production

Production of cereals in 2019 was estimated at a well below‑average level of 944 000 tonnes due to unfavourable weather conditions. To guarantee adequate consumption levels, cereal import requirements in the 2019/20 marketing year (April/March) were estimated at over 900 000 tonnes, about 35 percent above the five‑year average. The high volume mainly reflects the larger import needs for maize grain as the 2019 maize harvest was estimated to satisfy only the 40 percent of the national consumption requirement, nearly half if compared to the previous five years.

The estimated quantity of imports remains below the import requirement, indicating that national supplies are likely to remain very limited until the main harvest period. This is mainly due to a shortage of foreign exchange supplies for importers, in addition to the weaker domestic currency. So far, over 160 000 tonnes were imported from South Africa, an estimated 100 000 tonnes was reported to have been delivered from the United Republic of Tanzania and about 5 500 tonnes were sourced from Zambia. In addition, there are likely to have been informal imports but not at significant levels.

In order to increase imports, the Government lifted the ban on imports of Genetically Modified (GM) grains in December 2019, introducing the rule that grains must first be put into quarantine before being milled into flour.

Cereal prices increased sharply throughout 2019

The combination of a sustained currency weakness and low domestic supplies exerted strong upward pressure on food prices in 2019, causing abrupt increases and sustaining the high levels. In December 2019 and January 2020, however, some markets registered moderate monthly price declines, marking the first decrease since March 2019, reflecting the implementation of price subsidies and improved market supplies due to the removal of a ban of imports of GM grains. Despite this slight decline, nominal prices of maize meal and wheat flour, which is almost entirely imported, were up to ten times higher on a yearly basis in January 2020. Similarly, rice and bread prices are also at elevated levels.

Significant number of people require food assistance

The number of food insecure people for the January‑March 2020 period was estimated at about 5.5 million, the highest number on record, according to results from the Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee released in July 2019. The high levels of food insecurity mostly resulted from the reduced availability of grains and the high food prices that severely constrained access to food. The low output not only reduced food availability for rural households, but also it cut incomes from agricultural‑related activities, due to lower crop sales from households’ own production.