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Research on Demand Estimate on Infrastructure in Asia: Bridging the Gaps in Infrastructure Investment for Flood Protection in Asia (No. 202 - February 2020)

Страны
Мир
+ 12
Источники
JICA
Дата публикации

1. Introduction

Investment is crucial in mitigating damage caused by flooding. Various international arenas recommend increasing investment in disaster risk reduction (DRR). The Sendai Framework for DRR, which UN Member States adopted in 2015 during the Third UN World Conference on DRR held in that city, emphasizes investment as a priority action for decreasing disaster risks and losses (UNISDR 2015). The Yangon Declaration: The Pathway Forward set the goal of doubling investment to address water-related disasters and to increase water security in the Asia-Pacific region. The declaration was adopted at the Third Asia-Pacific Water Summit in 2017 by 20 heads of state, 15 ministers responsible for water issues, and other leaders (Asia Pacific Water Forum 2017). The High-Level Panel on Water (2019), which the United Nations and the World Bank jointly established, recommends doubling investment in water-related DRR within the next 5 years.

Estimating the financial gaps in DRR is needed to consider appropriate investment policies, plans and financial arrangements. However, the estimates of the demand for DRR are rarely available, and academic literature in this area is limited. This is because budget data on DRR is rarely available and when we consider the deep uncertainties in changing climate and society is difficult to do.

This paper aims at estimating the financial gaps relating to the infrastructure of flood protection. It analyzes the trends in budgets for flood protection in the major flood-prone economies in Asia and proposes a methodology for estimating the demand for flood protection infrastructure based on actual budget data newly collected. The demand in the region until 2030 is estimated using regression analysis to apply the panel data of possible socio-economic factors, and the financial gaps are estimated. The paper also aims at proposing policies on filling these gaps by examining policies and approaches in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the Philippines and Japan, which have experienced increasing investment in flood protection. This paper has been prepared as a part of the research project “Demand estimate on social and disaster prevention infrastructure in Asia” conducted by the JICA Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan.