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GIEWS Country Brief: Madagascar 17-February-2020

Países
Madagascar
Fuentes
FAO
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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  • National cereal production in 2020 expected to decrease from high outturn in 2019, but remain at near-average level

  • Paddy harvest in 2019 estimated at above-average level, reflecting large plantings and high yields

  • Cereal import requirements estimated to increase slightly in 2019/20

  • Improved national supplies tempered seasonal price increases and kept prices lower on yearly basis in 2019

  • Despite declining in 2019/20, prevalence of food insecurity remains high in southern regions

National cereal production in 2020 expected to decrease from high outturn in 2019, but remain at near-average level

The main 2020 season paddy crop is expected to be harvested from April and vegetation conditions, as of January 2020, were mostly favourable in the key-producing central and northern regions, while they were at below-average levels in the south due to rainfall deficits.
In the north and most of the centre, weather conditions since the start of the cropping season in October have been generally beneficial for early crop development. However, torrential rains in northern regions at the end of December and in January triggered floods and caused localized crop losses, mostly concentrated in riverine areas in the regions of Alaotra Mangoro, Boeny and Sofia. In addition, an erratic distribution of seasonal rainfall in parts of the central provinces stressed crops and dampened yield expectations.

In the southern regions, which have experienced prolonged periods of drought conditions in successive cropping seasons, cumulative rainfall between October 2019 and January 2020 was well below average, reducing production prospects of the 2020 cereal crops in these areas.
Based on the generally favourable crop conditions in the main paddy-producing areas, national production is expected at a near-average level in 2020. However, reflecting localized losses of standing crops in the north and lower yield prospects due to adverse weather in the south, the national harvest is expected to decline compared to the high outturn of 2019.