9.4 million people are estimated to be in immediate need of assistance (phases 3-5) in October-December 2019 in the 16 countries analysed in the Sahel and West Africa region (excluding Liberia), including 4 million in Nigeria, 1.5 million in Niger and 1.2 million in Burkina Faso. This situation is likely to worsen, mainly due to insecurity. By June-August 2020, 14.4 million people (5.4%) are projected to be in a crisis situation or worse, including 1.2 million in an emergency situation (phase 4).
Civil insecurity has led to a sharp increase in the number of displaced people, particularly in northern Burkina Faso (480 000 people), northwestern Nigeria (310 000 people) and Niger (180 000 people). Nearly 1.9 million people continue to be internally displaced in Nigeria. The majority are hosted in local communities, placing increasing pressure on food resources and local livelihoods in the short and long term.
Despite humanitarian assistance, the food and nutrition situation of internally displaced people (IDPs) and refugees remains a major concern, due to limited resources, continued displacement and difficult humanitarian access. More than a third, or 262 000 people living in IDP camps in nine local government areas (LGAs) in Borno State, Nigeria, are in a food crisis or worse (phases 3-5); similarly, 17 000 of the 70 000 Malian refugees in five official camps in Niger are in need of increased urgent assistance.
Agro-pastoral production has been good overall. Cereal production is estimated at 75.1 million tonnes, an increase of 14.2% compared to the five-year average. However, trade is severely disrupted, particularly in the Sahel regions of Burkina Faso, Mopti in Mali and Tillabéry in Niger. Trade flows also remain disturbed in the Lake Chad basin and northern Mali.
The nutrition situation remains alarming throughout the region. While there has been a slight decrease in the prevalence of acute malnutrition in some areas of Niger and northeastern Nigeria, the global acute malnutrition (GAM) rate exceeds the emergency threshold (>15%) in some areas in Burkina Faso, Chad and Mali.