ReliefWeb

Executive summary

 Southern Africa did not recover from the widespread drought persisting since 2018 and throughout 2019. Instead, with a suboptimal start of the ongoing rainy season, the situation further worsened over wide areas of South Africa, Namibia, Angola, Zimbabwe, Zambia and Lesotho.

 Risk for food security is maximum across most of the area, where rural communities rely on rainfed crops and pastures, and is going to persists throughout the incoming wet season. The population exposed amounts to millions. Emergencies may be expected during the next months, since water resources are already strained by multiannual precipitation deficits.

 On top of food security, water availability may be at stake for both cities and reservoirs, depending on the progress of precipitation in the key months up until February. Major damages to the economy of Zambia and Zimbabwe are reported. The low water level at Kariba dam is threatening power supply to both countries.

 The outlook until February is normal or positive for the subcontinental south-west, but negative for Zambia, Zimbabwe and Limpopo (South Africa). Southern Africa has a strong precipitation seasonality, with the majority of annual rainfall falling between November and March. A seasonal failure entails at least a year-long water deficit.
This document builds on the previous reports published in January, March and August 20191 , please refer to them for more insight on the drought and earlier reported impacts.

Risk of drought impact for agriculture (RDrI-Agri)

The indicator RDrI-Agri shows the risk of having impacts from a drought, by taking into account the exposure and socio-economic vulnerability of the area, with particular focus to the agricultural impacts. Figure 1 illustrates the wide extent of subcontinent exposed to drought risks, notably south-west Zambia, southern Angola, most of Namibia, Lesotho and about half of South Africa, the latter two showing the highest risk level.