ReliefWeb

HIGHLIGHTS

• Two tropical weather systems are strengthening in the Indian Ocean, near Madagascar.
• Tropical Cyclone Ambali could approach Reunion Island and Mauritius this weekend or early next week.
• Tropical Storm Belna is moving towards the north-east of Madagascar and could hit the country on 9 or 10 December.
• Heavy rains and strong winds are expected in northern Madagascar, north-eastern Mozambique and Comoros, while moderate rain is expected in Mauritius.
• Governments and humanitarian partners are undertaking emergency preparedness efforts and are closely monitoring the weather systems’ evolutions.

SITUATION OVERVIEW

Two tropical weather systems have formed in the past days in the Indian Ocean and could affect several countries in the region, including the Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius and Mozambique, bringing heavy rains and strong winds.

Tropical Cyclone Ambali, located east of Madagascar, is rapidly intensifying and could approach Reunion Island and Mauritius this weekend or early next week, but is not expected to make landfall.

The low-pressure system located north of Madagascar has intensified into Severe Tropical Storm Belna. The trajectory of the storm has shifted further south than previously anticipated. According to different projections, the system is expected to brush the extreme west of the country around 9 or 10 December at a maximum wind speed of 167 km/h. This is a very isolated area, with no commercial flights and is challenging to access by road during the rainy season. Five districts in Madagascar— Boeny, Diana, Melaky, Sava and Sofia —have been placed on warning (green alert) by Meteo Madagascar.

Climatic conditions in the Indian Ocean are reportedly currently conducive to the formation of intense weather systems due to two interlinked climatic conditions: the Indian Ocean Dipole, which has been in its strongest positive state since at least 2015, and a favourable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation.

HUMANITARIAN PREPAREDNESS

Governments, supported by humanitarian partners, are monitoring the evolution of the weather system and undertaking key operational readiness measures to prepare for possible humanitarian impacts.

In Madagascar, the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC) and humanitarian organizations have activated cyclone response measures in the north, north-east and north-west of the country. A first inter-sectoral meeting was held on 5 December to prepare for the most likely scenario. A BNGRC team is planning to deploy to Besalampy city. All districts on green alert—Boeny, Diana, Melaky, Sava and Sofia—have been requested to apply the required preparatory measures