For the period from July to October 2019, compared to 2018 for the same period, the situation has improved considerably: only one district (Ampanihy) out of the 13 analysed is in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and the rest are in Stress (IPC Phase 2). No district is in IPC Phase 4. Despite this improvement, in all the areas analysed, more than 500,000 people are in severe acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 and above), representing 14% of the population in the areas analysed. Ampanihy District has a higher proportion of the population in this category (25% of the population) than other districts, with nearly 99,600 people.
From November 2019 to March 2020, which coincides with the lean season, it is estimated that the situation will likely worsen, with all districts moving to IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) except Tulear II and Manakara Atsimo. The West Ampanihy District will likely remain in IPC Phase 3 and will continue to record the highest population and proportion of people in IPC Phase 4 (30%), and also between April and June 2020 (20%) during the harvest period.
In all the periods analysed, the key drivers behind the food insecurity situation in these areas include limited access to food, given the high proportion of food expenditure in the household budget, as well as the precariousness of income-generating activities, hazards and shocks negatively impacting food availability, particularly the attack of crop pests (Fall Armyworms, rats, locusts). Structural poverty is also a factor limiting the household’s ability to rebound in the event of shocks, especially in terms of rebuilding livelihoods.