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GIEWS Country Brief: Belarus 16-October-2019

Pays
Biélorussie
Sources
FAO
Date de publication
Origine
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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  • Above‑average production of cereals forecast in 2019
  • Import requirements forecast above average in 2019/20
  • Prices of wheat flour increased slightly in August

Above‑average production of cereals forecast in 2019

Harvesting of the 2019 winter cereals (mainly wheat and barley) was completed by mid‑August, while maize crops are currently being harvested under favourable weather conditions.

The aggregate 2019 cereal production, which includes maize crops to be harvested until late October, is forecast at the average level of 7.6 million tonnes. The 2019 output of wheat is estimated at 2.8 million tonnes, 55 percent above the 2018 low output and 10 percent above the five‑year average due to large plantings and favourable weather conditions during the season. By contrast, maize production is forecast at 580 000 tonnes, 15 percent below the five‑year average due to localized rainfall deficits and warmer‑than‑average temperatures in July in the key cereal producing regions of Grodno and Brest, which negatively affected yields.

Sowing of the 2020 winter cereals is ongoing under favourable weather conditions and is expected to finalize by the end of October. Planting intentions are officially estimated at above‑average 1.3 million hectares.

Import requirements forecast above average in 2019/20

In the 2019/20 marketing year (July/June), total cereal import requirements are forecast at 620 000 tonnes, about 35 percent below the previous year’s high level but still well above the average.

Wheat grain and wheat flour purchases are forecast at 300 000 tonnes, a well above‑average volume for the second consecutive year, to account for the low level of stocks following the reduced domestic wheat production obtained in 2018 and amid low export prices from the Russian Federation, the main wheat supplier to the country.

Similarly, maize import requirements in 2019/20 are forecast at 140 000 tonnes, well above the five‑year average volume, in order to compensate the expected reduced domestic output.

Prices of wheat flour increased slightly in August

Retail prices of wheat flour, after increasing in May 2019, declined in the following two months and seasonally rose, although slightly, in August.

Prices of potatoes, another important staple in the country, rose between April and June 2019, in line with the seasonal trends and decreased afterwards with the new supplies from the 2019 harvest boosting market availabilities.