ReliefWeb

FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

• Favourable prospects for 2019 crops due to adequate cumulative rainfall amounts

• Slightly above-average import requirements forecast

• Higher food prices in northeast due to persisting conflict

• Assistance needs will remain high in 2019

Favourable prospects for 2019 crops due to adequate cumulative rainfall amounts

The rainy season was characterized by a timely onset in February/March in the south and in May/June in the north. Rains have been abundant across the season and cumulative precipitations were well above average in most areas, improving vegetation conditions and lifting crop prospects. The harvest of the main season maize crop was completed in August in the south, while the rice, millet and sorghum crops are at grain setting or maturity stages in the rest of the country. The aggregated crop production is expected at above‑average levels, despite some production shortfalls in the northeast region. In the three northeastern states of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe, there are significant constraints to crop production, including restrictions on movement and effective use of dry blended fertilizers.

Pastures and water availability for livestock have improved by early September compared to the previous months, ending the pastoral lean season in the main grazing areas of the country.
The animal health situation is overall stable. However, the conflict in the northeast and armed banditry, kidnapping and the farmer/herder conflict in northwest and north central parts of the country continue to limit the access to grazing land and veterinary services for pastoralists.

The aggregate cereal output in 2019 is forecast at 27.3 million tonnes, 3 percent lower than the 2018 record level, but still 4 percent higher than the previous five-year average. The overall favourable performance of the 2019 agricultural season mainly reflects adequate rainfall and continued support in terms of inputs by the Government and humanitarian actors across the country. This has also benefited from the improved security conditions and a re-engagement of agricultural investors lost to the 2015/16 economic recession.