- Acute as well as chronic malnutrition have increased significantly since January 2009. The almost double increase in wasting appears to be related to a high incidence of diarrhea in children during the summer months. Dietary diversity has improved in both children and women due to greater food availability. Both dietary diversity and nutritional status seemed to be influenced by food availability and access at the household level.
- Around 1.4 million people were identified as food insecure, 390,000 of them severely. Compared to the previous round (May 2009) the extent of food insecurity in Tajikistan remains the same. More than half of the food insecure people are chronically food insecure. The rest are victims of shocks, which explains variation between zones over time.
- As in the previous round, the level of severe food insecurity in the country remains at around 9% of the rural population. The situation did not deteriorate mainly due to a good harvest of wheat, vegetables and fruits and to assistance provided to households affected by heavy rains in certain areas.
- Moderate food insecurity also stands at similar levels as in May 2009. It has mainly decreased in Sughd, but remains at similar levels in other regions. The lack of improvement of moderate food insecurity at a time when better physical access should allow households to be food secure is mainly due to external shocks creating pockets of severe food insecurity.
- Sughd and Khatlon have been replaced as the most food insecure regions by DRD, due to economic shocks (especially the loss of employment and decrease in remittances). The most food insecure zones in Sughd and Khatlon are the same as they were in May; they can now be seen as priority zones for long-term interventions and also as the most vulnerable to shocks.
- The outlook for the next three months is relatively good, thanks to a good harvest. Households will be able to stock food for the hard months to come, to decrease proportion of expenditures devoted to food and to focus on investing in assets or covering other expenditures. But the food price and economic crises still threaten these fragile improvements. Moreover, the increase of expenditures related to education and religious events (end of Ramadan) will add to the precariousness of the most vulnerable rural households.