These scenarios describe possible developments in the profile of the displaced population and humanitarian access in Afghanistan over the next 18 months.
They were developed in June 2019, during a one-day workshop in Kabul, Afghanistan. Staff from 20 humanitarian, academic, diplomatic, military, or policy organisations contributed to these scenarios through participation in the workshop or bilateral meetings.
Many variables that could cause change were mapped during the workshop. By making assumptions as to how these variables might plausibly change, five scenarios were identified.
The aim is to support strategic planning, create awareness and promote preparedness activities for those actors responding to the Afghanistan crisis.