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I am pleased to present SIGAR’s 2019 High-Risk List to the 116th Congress and the Secretaries of State and Defense.

This edition of the High-Risk List is issued pursuant to SIGAR’s statutory obligation to make recommendations to promote economy, efciency, and effectiveness. Like its two predecessor reports, it identifies serious threats to the United States’ $132 billion reconstruction effort in Afghanistan. With negotiations underway that could lead to the end of America’s longest war, this report also identifies risks to the reconstruction effort that might persist or arise in the wake of any peace agreement that might be reached.

The $132 billion appropriated since 2002 for Afghanistan’s reconstruction has been used to train and equip Afghan security forces, strengthen government institutions, promote the rule of law, protect women’s rights, improve health and education, and stimulate economic development, among other objectives.

Yet the gains from our nation’s investment in Afghanistan’s reconstruction face multiple threats: continued insecurity, endemic corruption, weak Afghan institutions, the insidious impact of the narcotics trade, and inadequate coordination and oversight by donors.

While an equitable and sustainable peace agreement in Afghanistan could end much of the violence that presents the greatest threat to the reconstruction effort, a peace agreement may bring its own set of challenges to sustaining the gains that the United States, its Coalition partners, and the Afghan government have achieved over that time.

For example, a failure to successfully reintegrate Taliban fighters and their families into Afghan society, a failure to improve civil policing, and a failure to ensure effective oversight of continuing foreign financial assistance could each undermine the sustainability of any peace agreement that might be reached.

I hope that policymakers will find the High-Risk List useful as they chart the future course of America’s engagement in Afghanistan. The American blood and treasure expended over the past 17 years demands a sober assessment of the risks facing the reconstruction effort, whether or not a peace agreement is reached.

Sincerely,

John F. Sopko

Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction