Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in Karamoja expected to intensify until mid-2019
Anticipated above-average March to May rainfall in bimodal areas is expected to result in average crop and livestock production and related labor opportunities, though areas prone to flooding and landslides would see localized production shortfalls. Consecutive seasons of near-average bimodal production is expected to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through September.
In Karamoja, household food gaps are expected to widen, particularly in Kotido and Kaabong. Declining wage rates and rising food prices are limiting purchasing power, thereby constraining household food access and increasing the use of negative coping strategies. 2019 production is anticipated to be slightly below-average, driven by reduced area planted as most farmers were unable to save seeds from failed 2018 harvests. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to intensify until July, when availability of the harvests will support recovery to Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
In bimodal Uganda, low staple food prices driven by surplus market supply are enhancing food access. Retail prices of maize, sorghum, and cassava in January were below both the five-year and previous year averages by two to 38 percent, and prices are expected to remain low to near-average throughout the scenario period. However, sorghum prices in northern Karamoja are highly dynamic due to increased household demand and poorer market supply flows. Although prices stabilized in January compared to the five-year average, prices are currently 11 and 50 percent above the five-year average in Nakapiripirit and Kotido markets.
-In refugee settlements, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected to be maintained, driven by humanitarian food assistance and own production. Assistance is planned through September and at least partially funded through May.
However, food security outcomes would deteriorate to Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) in the event of significant ration cuts.