ReliefWeb

The situation

Each year, the National Agency for Meteorology and Environmental Monitoring (NAMEM) publishes a Dzud risk map, which uses summer condition, pasture carrying capacity, livestock number, anomalous precipitation and temperature, snow depth, biomass, drought index, temperature forecast, etc. to predict which regions may experience severe winter condition. On 20 November 2018, a Dzud risk map was published (see Figure 1) and over 20 per cent of the country had high to very high risk of dzud, including BayanUlgii, Uvs, Khovd, Govi-Altai, Zavkhan,
Bayankhongor, Uvurkhangai, and Arkhangai provinces. MRCS has been carefully monitoring the winter situation in the provinces that have high and very high risk of dzud.

According to the Red Cross branch of Khovd province, which has a very high risk of dzud, an emergency commission was formed to assess the winter situation as the local temperature dropped to minus 34 degrees Celsius in the mountainous area, and snow thickness became between 15 to 20 centimeters, which is above average (see Figure 2). In Khovd province, 4.8 million animals are at risk this winter and already over 20,000 livestock deaths and 3,242 pregnancy losses have occurred.

The Red Cross branch in Uvs province, another province which also has a very high risk of dzud, reported that 80 per cent of the province is covered by snow and snow thickness is between 15 to 24 centimeters in the steppe area, 40 to 80 centimeters in the mountainous area, and the local temperature dropped to between minus 29 and minus 48 degrees Celsius (see Figure 3). Over 15,000 livestock have perished, and frozen fields are preventing livestock from grazing. The death rate is anticipated to hit its peak in spring (March to May) with no vegetation until June.

Emergency commission members met with herder households to assess their situation. Most herder households have started feeding their livestock with fodder to keep them alive; however, herders have stated that they will run out of their small amounts of reserved hay and fodder soon. In addition, due to the late onset of rain last summer (from end of July) hay is less nutritional to the livestock.