Sufficient moisture conditions prevail over most of the country at the peak of the winter wet season.
The winter wet season has produced above-average precipitation, in the range of 115 percent to over 145 percent of normal over the central, eastern, and northern parts of the country, consistent with the existent weak El Niño. However, the southwestern part of the country is experiencing precipitation deficit of up to 70 percent of normal.
In response to above-average precipitation, snow accumulation is also increasing, although the spatial distribution remains isolated and mostly concentrated to high-elevation areas of the northeastern and central highlands (e.g. Kabul, Kokcha, Kunduz, Balkhab, Bala Murghab). While snow water storage over the northeastern basins is above-average, it is average to below-average over the southern basins which contain premium irrigated croplands (e.g. Farah, Khash, Helmand,
During the months of February, March, and April, both precipitation and temperatures are expected to be above-average. The prevailing temperatures during this period will be key in defining the risk of flooding or maintenance of the water storage for irrigation in the spring and summer.