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GIEWS Country Brief: Philippines 25-January-2019

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FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

  • Paddy production in 2018 forecast near record level of 2017

  • Cereal imports in 2018/19 marketing year (July/June) forecast at record level

  • Despite further decrease in December, prices of rice still significantly higher than year before

  • Concerns about food security conditions remain for population affected by Typhoon Mangkhut and Tropical Depression Usman

Paddy production in 2018 forecast near record level of 2017

Harvesting of the 2018 main paddy crop finalized in December, while harvesting of the 2018 secondary paddy crop is expected to be completed by April 2019. Overall, production prospects for the 2018 paddy crops are positive. Near-record plantings for the main and secondary crops are expected to fully offset some localized crop losses caused by the passage of Typhoon Mangkhut over parts of north and central Luzon and of Tropical Depression Usman over parts of regions IV-A, V and VIII. Aggregate 2018 paddy output is forecast at 19.3 million tonnes, 4 percent above the five-year average and close to the record level in 2017.

Harvesting of the 2018 main maize crop finalized in September, while the 2018 secondary maize crop is expected to be harvested between February and May 2019. The 2018 aggregate maize output is forecast at a record of 8.2 million tonnes, about 8 percent higher than the five-year average, as adequate supply of water for irrigation and a higher use of high quality seeds significantly increased yields.

Some concerns remain about the 2018 secondary paddy and maize crops output as the latest forecast from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Change and Society indicates high probabilities of the occurrence of an El Niño event in 2018/19 and forecasts below-average rains in most of the country until February.

Cereal imports in 2018/19 marketing year (July/June) forecast at record level

Aggregate cereal import requirements in the 2018/19 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at a record of 8.8 million tonnes, about 28 percent above the five-year average level. Import requirements of rice in 2018/19, which account for the bulk of the increase, are forecast at 2.3 million tonnes, about 75 percent above the five-year average, owing to the increased need to replenish rice public inventories in order to stabilize prices and contain inflation.

Wheat import requirements in 2018/19 are forecast at a record of 5.8 million tonnes, close to last year’s high level but 17 percent above the five-year average, owing to increasing demand for both high quality wheat for milling and low quality wheat for feed use. Maize import requirements in 2018/19 are forecast at 700 000 tonnes, virtually unchanged from last year’s near-average level.

Despite further decrease in December, prices of rice still significantly higher than year before Prices of regular and well-milled rice declined for the third consecutive month in December 2018, reflecting improved supplies due to the commercialization of the 2018 main paddy crops as well as increased imports. Nevertheless, prices in December were still about 10 percent higher than a year earlier following an upward trend since the beginning of 2018, which reached a record high value in September 2018, amid increased fuel prices and low public inventories.

Concerns on food security conditions of populations struck by Typhoon Mangkhut

The country is generally food secure. However, concerns remain for populations affected by the passage, in September 2018, of category 5 Typhoon Mangkhut in central and northern Luzon, mainly impacting regions I, II, III, CAR and IV-A, which affected about 2.1 million people. Additionally, the passage of Tropical Depression Usman in December 2018 brought heavy rainfalls that triggered floods and landslides and affected about 300 000 people in regions IV-A, V and VIII.