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GIEWS Country Brief: Chad 11-January-2019

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Food Security Snapshot

  • Above-average harvest gathered in 2018
  • Average economic growth and slightly increasing inflation rate
  • Stable prices of coarse grains compared to last year
  • Continued food and humanitarian assistance needed, including for refugees

Above-average harvest gathered in 2018

Harvesting of millet, sorghum, maize and rice paddy has just been completed and the 2018 national cereal production was estimated at 3 million tonnes, about 12 percent above 2017’s output and 14 percent above the five-year average. Compared to 2017, major increases were observed in sorghum production.

Following the good performance of the agricultural season and a fodder balance sheet with a surplus of about 105 million tonnes of dry matter, the pastoral situation is overall satisfactory. The animal health situation is relatively stable due to the vaccination campaigns undertaken by the Government and its partners. Rearing conditions across pastoral areas of the country are generally favourable supporting good livestock body conditions and improving their market value.

Average economic growth and increasing inflation rate

According to the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU), the economy is expected to grow by 3.5 percent in 2019 driven by a slight increase in economic activity and oil production. In 2019, the year-on-year inflation is forecast at 1.8 percent, up from 13 percent reported in 2018, due to higher domestic and oil prices.

Prices of coarse grains stable compared to previous year

The prices of coarse grains were relatively stable in October 2018 compared to October 2017 as a result of increased market availabilities from the new harvest. However, some significant declines, up to 20 percent, compared to last year were recorded for millet and sorghum on Moundou and Sarh markets. In most livestock markets, prices of animals are stable compared to last year and below the five-year average due to weak local and external demand, mainly from Nigeria, but also from the Sudan and Libya due to persisting civil insecurity in these countries.

Continued assistance needed due to persisting civil insecurity in neighbouring countries

The conflicts in Lake Chad Region and recently, in Tibesti Region, are disrupting livelihoods and markets The last attacks on Lake Chad Region in September 2018 have also caused a wave of displacement. According to UNHCR, as of November 2018, the country hosts 451 000 refugees from neighbouring countries, including the Central African Republic, Libya, Nigeria and the Sudan, affected by persisting civil conflict. In the Lake Chad Region, civil insecurity related to the presence of armed groups continues to prevent access to humanitarian actors and it amplifies the level of vulnerability of displaced people. In the east and central parts of the country, the recurrent attacks, including car highjacking on aid organizations may have a serious impact on humanitarian interventions. According to IOM, as of October 2018, 163 000 people were displaced due to insecurity in the Lake Chad Region.

According to the November 2018 “Cadre Harmonisé” analysis, about 189 000 people are estimated to be in need of food assistance from October-December 2018, with a significant decrease from 318 000 people from October-December 2017. However, the caseload is expected to increase to 519 000 people during the lean season (June-August 2019), if no mitigation actions are taken.