Results of the Analysis of Current (October – December, 2018) and Projected (June – August 2019)
The Cadre Harmonisé (CH) is the framework for consensual analysis of acute food and nutrition insecurity situations in the ECOWAS region. The October 2018 CH analysis covered sixteen Northern States of Nigeria including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The analysis took food and nutrition security outcome indicators and relevant indicators and contributing factors namely, Hazards and Vulnerability, Food Availability, Access, Stability and Utilization including Water, and Sanitation into account. Compared to the previous round of October, 2017, the 2018 CH results show a decrease in the current situation of 703,862 (representing 22.3%) people in the critical phases (3 to 5) of food insecurity. However, for the three states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe, the decrease is 851,519 (representing 33.2%) people in these critical phases.
Hazards and vulnerability:
Incidence of natural hazards (such as flood, crop infestation and wind storm) and other instigated hazards such as civil unrest and conflicts negatively impacted on livelihoods and consequently, food security and nutrition situation in affected areas. The impact of conflict was most pronounced in Adamawa, Benue, Borno, Kaduna, Plateau and Zamfara States. Natural hazards such as flood, infestation of fall army worms, wildfire and wind storm affected communities in Adamawa, Bauchi, Benue, Borno, Kaduna, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, and Niger States. Hazards and vulnerability impacted negatively on food consumption and livelihoods of households in the areas of occurrence.
During the current period, production of food and cash crop recorded a general increase compared to the 5-year average except in Benue, and Taraba States where production was below average due to flooding, early cessation of rainfall, infestation of fall army worms and conflicts between farmers-herders. The improved availability of food in conflict-affected north-east states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe can be attributed to the improvements in the security situation coupled with improved access to land, favourable agro-climatic conditions, gradual recovery of markets and restoration of livelihoods due to the maintained scale up and improved quality of the food and nutrition assistance by the Government of Nigeria and humanitarian community. Food availability in most states is expected to decline during the lean season (June – August 2019). However, this would be alleviated by the harvests and proceeds from the dry season farming in some of the states.
Most households across the 16 States had experienced rising food access prior to harvest from wet season farming and declining food prices in September 2018. The decreases (ranging from -5 to -35%) in the prices of staple food crops (millet, rice, sorghum and Maize) and 10% - 40% decrease for cowpea were witnessed across the 16 states and FCT in Sept., 2018 compared to the same period in 2017. Prices of most food and cash crops were higher in Sept 2018 than the past 5-year average. Household stocks is expected to last for an average of 4 months across the States with depletion in the lean season.
Food Utilization including Water:
Critical levels of Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) and Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) were recorded in Bauchi, Borno and Yobe States. Gombe and Zamfara States also reported high rate of malnutrition. The prevalence of diseases such as malaria, pneumonia, diarrhea, typhoid fever, cholera and measles were reported in Zamfara, Plateau, Adamawa, Borno and Yobe States.
During the current period, food stocks are stable in most of the states and FCT except for Adamawa, Borno and Yobe States where food stability was recorded in few LGAs. The food stock levels will be depleted in the lean period across most of the states except for specific areas with irrigation potentials to support dry season farming. Instability of food stocks will be most pronounced in Adamawa, Borno and Yobe compared to the other 14 states and the FCT.
Main results for zones affected by food and nutrition insecurity in the 16 states of Adamawa, Bauchi, Benue, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Niger, Plateau, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, Zamfara and the FCT.
There is improvement in food consumption across most of the States, especially those affected by the conflict in the north-east, as 14 out of the 16 states and the FCT were classified under the minimal phase of food security situation while Yobe and Borno States were under stress.
Results of the current analysis showed improvement in Livelihood opportunities except in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa State where most conflict-affected households were using asset depleting coping strategies which tend to undermine their productivity and ability to sustain those livelihoods. During the projected period, sustained use of such coping strategies, especially in these three north-east states, will leave livelihoods in the emergency phase. However, this could be mitigated by sustaining the ongoing humanitarian assistance from government and development partners, in order to minimize the use of such coping strategies.
Prevalence of acute malnutrition remains a concern. Stunting prevalence ranges between 25% and 40% in Adamawa, Borno and Yobe States. The nutritional status is critical in Yobe, Jigawa and Sokoto but serious in Bauchi, Adamawa and Kano. More specifically, in some hard-to-reach areas in Borno State, indirect nutrition information suggests that the nutrition situation may be an issue of great concern. Lack of recent data hampered the analysis of the nutrition outcome in Bauchi, Benue, Niger, Jigawa, Gombe, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Plateau and Zamfara.
U5MR is still high in Adamawa, Borno and Yobe States with the incidences ranging from 0.05/10,000 to 2.35/10,000 children. Other states do not have report on mortality due to lack of relevant data.