ReliefWeb

HIGHLIGHTS

• The Deyr rainy season begins.

• Needs high among IDPs & rural populations

• Humanitarian Needs Overview process kicks off

• Promoting literacy & skills development.

• Operating environment continues to be challenging

• Life-saving & restoration of facilities continue, four months after Cyclone Sagar

• The Humanitarian Response Plan critically under-funded.

The Deyr rainy season begins

During the last week of September, the 2018 Deyr rainy season (September-December) began in some parts of Somalia, according to the FAO-managed Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM) service. The rains are expected to continue spreading over the coming weeks. Light to moderate rainfall is expected in early October, mostly in the northern regions and some areas in the south. Moderate rains are also expected in the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands during the first week of October.

A forecast issued by the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF50), in August 2018, indicates a high probability of normal to above-average Deyr rains across Somalia. Specifically, the forecast indicates a 35 per cent chance of above-average rainfall in the north-western areas. This probability is higher (40 per cent) in the rest of the country.

The anticipated rains are expected to further enhance pasture and water availability for livestock, improve livestock body condition and reproduction, and facilitate increased crop cultivation in rain-fed crop-growing areas of Somalia, which might see food production continue to improve. On the downside, average to aboveaverage rainfall is also likely in parts of the Ethiopian highlands, which contribute significantly to the flow of water in the Juba and Shabelle river. As a result, there will be an increased risk of flooding along the rivers and the risk of flash flooding in low-lying areas of Galgaduud, Mudug, parts of Nugaal.