A recent forecast issued by the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF50), issued on 28 August 2018, indicates a greater likelihood of normal to above normal 2018 Deyr (October-December) rains across Somalia. Specifically, the forecast indicates 35 percent probability of above normal rainfall in the northwest regions. This probability is higher (40%) in the rest of the country. Overall, probabilities of normal to above normal rainfall are 75 percent across the country.
According to the information from GHACOF50, the 2018 Deyr season is expected to start earlier than normal with normal cessation in many parts of the Somalia but an early cessation is likely in the northwest regions of the country. There is also an increased likelihood of warmer than normal average temperatures across Somalia.
The anticipated average to above average Deyr rains are expected to further enhance pasture and water availability for livestock, improve livestock body condition and reproduction and facilitate increased crop cultivation in crop growing areas of Somalia.
On the downside, normal to above normal rainfall is also likely in parts of the Ethiopian highlands which contribute significantly to the flow into the two main rivers in Somalia (Juba and Shabelle). As a result, there will be an increased risk of flooding along Juba and Shabelle rivers.
Low lying areas of Galgaduud, Mudug, parts of Nugaal and other regions may experience flash floods during the forthcoming Deyr season due to the forecast heavy rains.
For more details find attached is the Somalia Rainfall Outlook for 2018 Deyr. You can keep track of the river levels through the season on the link http://frrims.faoswalim.org/rivers/levels