High staple food and fuel prices to drive increased assistance needs, lower crop production
• Sharp increases in staple food prices are likely to exacerbate the severity of food insecurity among populations affected by severe dryness and/or displacement in 2017. Between June and September 2018, IDPs in SPLM-N controlled areas of South Kordofan are likely to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), while poor households in North Darfur and Kassala states and IDPs in Jebel Marra will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Across Sudan, assistance needs among poor households are likely to be higher than normal due to very high staple food prices.
• Staple food prices are expected to remain very high through January 2019, even though harvests starting in October 2018 could lead to small declines. Food security outcomes are expected to improve starting in October, following seasonal improvements in livestock productivity and as households access own-produced foods and earn in-kind income from agricultural labor. However, the number of people requiring emergency food assistance is likely to remain at above normal levels during the harvest period.
• Persistent long-term difficulties accessing foreign exchange in Sudan has resulted in severe fuel shortages and sharp increases in fuel prices between March and May 2018. Despite recent improved fuel availability in Khartoum, persistent fuel shortages during the planting season and sharp price increases for agricultural inputs are likely to reduce planted area and yields during the 2018 agricultural season to below-average levels, despite forecasts for above-average main season rainfall across many areas of Sudan.